GOES-R IFR Probability Fields, 0000 – 1300 UTC on 25 November 2016 (Click to enlarge)
Light winds and a long November night allowed radiation fog formation over much of the deep south early on 25 November 2016. (1200 UTC Surface analysis is here). The Aviation Weather Center Website indicated widespread IFR Conditions, below, over the south, with the sigmet suggesting improving visibilities after 1400 UTC.
The animation above shows the evolution of the GOES-R IFR Probability fields from just after sunset to just after sunrise. There is a good spatial match between observed IFR conditions and the developing field. IFR Probability can thus be a good situational awareness tool, identifying regions where IFR Conditions exist, or may be developing presently.
Screenshot of Aviation Weather Center Front Page, 1405 UTC on 25 November (Click to enlarge)
Did the GOES-13 Brightness Temperature Difference Field identify the fields? The animation below, from 0200-1300 UTC, shows a widespread signal that shows no distinguishable correlation with observed IFR conditions. Note also how the rising sun at the end of the animation changes the difference field as more and more reflected solar radiation with a wavelength of 3.9 µm is present. In addition, high clouds that move from the west (starting at 0400 UTC over Louisiana) prevent the satellite from viewing low clouds in regions where IFR conditions exist.
GOES-13 Brightness Temperature Difference field (3.9 µm – 10.7 µm), 0200-1300 UTC on 25 November 2016 (Click to enlarge)
The high clouds that prevent satellite detection of low clouds, as for example at 1100 UTC over parts of Alabama, cause a noticeable change in the IFR Probability fields, as shown in the toggle below. Values over the central part of the Florida panhandle are suppressed, and the field itself has a flatter character (compared to the pixelated field over southern Georgia, for example, where high clouds are not present). Even though high clouds prevent the satellite from providing useful information about low clouds in that region, GOES-R IFR Probability fields can provide useful information because of the fused nature of the product: Rapid Refresh information adds information about low-level saturation there, so IFR Probability values are large. In contrast, over southern Florida — near Tampa, for example, Rapid Refresh data does not show saturation, and IFR Probabiities are minimized even through the satellite data has a strong signal — caused by mid-level stratus. Soundings from Tampa and from Cape Kennedy suggest the saturated layer is around 800 mb.
GOES-R IFR Probability fields and GOES-13 Brightness Temperature Difference Fields, 1100 UTC on 25 November 2016 (Click to enlarge)
GOES-R Cloud Thickness, below, related 3.9 µm emissivity to cloud thickness via a look-up table that was generated using GOES-West Observations of marine stratus and sodar observations of cloud thickness. The last pre-sunrise thickness field, below, is related to dissipation time via this scatterplot. The largest values in the scene below are around 1000 feet, which value suggests a dissipation time of about 3 hours, or at 1445 UTC.
GOES-R Cloud Thickness Field, 1145 UTC on 25 November 2016 (Click to enlarge)