GOES-R IFR Probabilities (Upper Left), GOES-East Brightness Temperature Difference (10.7 µm – 3.9 µm) (Upper Right), Suomi/NPP Day/Night Band imagery (Lower Right), MODIS-based IFR Probabilitiy (Lower Left), times as indicated (Click to animate)
Moisture from departing late-day thunderstorms allowed for the development of dense fog over central Missouri overnight. The GOES-based IFR Probabilities, above, capture the low ceilings and reduced visibilities that developed. The traditional method of fog detection, the brightness temperature difference (BTD) between the 10.7 µm and 3.9 µm fields, was hampered by mid- and high-level clouds associated with the departing convection.
Polar-orbiting satellites such as Terra, Aqua and Suomi NPP can give high-resolution views of developing fog. In the present case, Terra overflew the region near 0400 UTC. The image below shows enhanced MODIS-based IFR Probabilities confined to central Missouri. An Aqua overpass at ~0800 UTC similarly gave a high spatial resolution view of the area. Of course, Terra and Aqua and Suomi NPP only give occasionaly snapshots. To see the ongoing development, temporal resolution as from GOES is key. But the polar orbiters can give an early alert if developing fog starts out at small scales that might be sub-pixel scale in GOES.
As above, but at 0400 UTC 14 July 2014 (Click to enlarge)
From the National Weather Service in St. Louis:
URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
527 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-GASCONADE MO-MONITEAU MO-
MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…COLUMBIA…JEFFERSON CITY
527 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014
…DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING.
* TIMING…DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 900
* VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
* IMPACTS…SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN DENSE FOG WILL SUBSTANTIALLY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES…TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS…RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED
TO USE CAUTION AND SLOW DOWN…AS OBJECTS ON AND NEAR ROADWAYS
WILL BE SEEN ONLY AT CLOSE RANGE.
The aviation portion of the AFD from St. Louis mentioned the probability of fog at 0800 UTC; the 1129 UTC update discussed the fog that was present over central Missouri:
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2014
The first concern for this TAF package is that for low ceilings
and fog that have developed in the wake of precipitation that
exited the area overnight. In central MO and including KCOU, fairly
widespread dense fog has reduced visibilities to under 1/4SM for
much of the night. Further east and including metro area TAF sites,
trends indicate the potential for IFR cigs and MVFR visibility for
the first couple hours of the period. However, all sites affected
by fog should see an improvement through the morning hours as
ceilings lift and fog burns off. The second concern is that of a
second cold front, poised to move through the area today.
Currently, the cold front extends from roughly KDBQ southwestward
along the Missouri/Illinois border and just south of KAFK. While
showers may develop along the front as it moves through KUIN
during the late morning/early afternoon, greater instability
exists further south and east. Have currently continued VCSH
mention at KUIN and KCOU, and VCTS for metro TAF sites this
afternoon as the cold front moves through. Uncertainties regarding
coverage and exact timing preclude any TEMPO groups at this time.
The front should be south of all area TAF sites by 21Z, at which
time winds will have veered to the northwest and increased to
around 10-14KT. Winds will remain northwesterly through the end of
the period in the wake of the front, and while a mostly VFR
forecast is expected, reductions in ceilings/visibility may occur
with any storms that move over the terminals.