GOES-R IFR Probabilities on the morning of 30 January suggested the likelihood of fog along some of the Finger Lakes of upstate New York. These high probabilities arise because the Brightness Temperature Difference (10.7 µm – 3.9 µm) Product, below, shows a signal there. Note, however, that the Brightness Temperature Difference has a shadow; this is the sign that the co-registration error that is present between the 10.7 µm and 3.9 µm channels is producing a fictitious signal of fog over the lake. Such errors have been discussed here and elsewhere in the past.
Evidence that fog is not present is available in Suomi/NPP data taken at the same time as the GOES data, above. The toggle, below, of Day/Night Band imagery and of the brightness temperature difference (11.35 µm – 3.74 µm) from VIIRS shows scant evidence of fog/low stratus near the Finger Lakes. Because the moon is new, lunar illumination is at a minimum and surface features in the Day/Night band are not distinct, but the dark waters of the lakes are apparent.
MODIS data also suggests no fog/low stratus in the region. Both the brightness temperature difference field and the MODIS-based IFR Probabilities, below, support a forecast that does not mention fog around the Finger Lakes.
Update, 17 November 2014
NOAA/NESDIS has tested a software fix to align better the longwave infrared (10.7 µm) and shortwave infrared (3.9 µm) channels. The toggle below is of the Brightness Temperature Difference Field with (After co-registration correction) and without (Prior to co-registration correction) the realignment.
The correction of the co-registration error translates into more realistic IFR Probabilities in/around the Finger Lakes. In this case, IFR Probabilities are reduced because the false strong signal from the satellite is not present because of more accurate co-registration.