|GOES-R IFR Probability Field associated with Tropical Storm Isaac
The multiple cloud layers associated with a tropical system, and the extensive cirrus shield that is spawned by rainbands, makes it very difficult for the traditional brightness temperature difference product to be used to highlight regions of low stratus and fog. This is when model data are vital in a fused product to highlight regions of aviation hazards, as shown in this loop. There is a change in probability as the Sun rises that is associated with changes in the weights given to various predictors. The color table suggests a very abrupt change. In reality, values increase from 10 to 15 percentage points.
Note how well the IFR probability field matches the regions of IFR and near IFR conditions in the loop above. This is testament to the accuracy of the model data, and to the relationships developed between model fields and IFR observations.