GOES-R IFR Probability, 1345 UTC on 19 July 2016, and 1400 UTC Observations of surface Visibility. Blue arrows point to, from left to right, Wainwright, Barrow, and Deadhorse Alaska (Click to enlarge)

The FAA website that includes webcams over much of Alaska provides a great opportunity to match IFR Probability fields with surface observations. In the image above, Wainwright AK shows a 3-mile visibility, but Barrow and Deadhorse farther east report 10-mile visibilities. All three stations are very near high IFR Probabilities — the red/orange region has IFR Probabilities exceeding 90%. What to the webcams at the three stations show? Screen captures from the three webcams are below. Webcams from both Barrow and Deadhorse show non-IFR conditions. Wainwright shows a dense fog through which the sun is dimly visible. These webcam observations are in general agreement with the GOES-based IFR Probability fields: only Wainwright is in a region where IFR Probabilities are consistently high.

Wainwright AK webcams at 1413 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Barrow AK webcams at 1413 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Deadhorse AK webcams at 1413 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

GOES-R IFR Probabilities, 1645 UTC on 19 July 2016, and 1700 UTC Observations of Ceilings/Visibilities (Click to enlarge)

The image above is of GOES-R IFR Probabilities over the Aleutians, along with surface observations of ceilings and visibilities.  In general, IFR Probabilities are a bit higher on the northern side of the Aleutians (False Pass, Cold Bay, Nelson Lagoon, Port Heiden, Pilot Point) than the southern side (Perryville, King Cove).  That is confirmed with the screen captures of webcam imagery, seen below.  The webcam scenes are aligned from west to east, starting at False Pass AK and ending at Pilot Point.

Webcam imagery from False Pass AK (PAKF) at 1653 UTC, 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Webcam imagery from Cold Bay, AK (PACD) at 1654 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Webcam imagery from King Cove, AK, (PAVC) at 1655 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Webcam imagery from Nelson Lagoon, (PAOU) 1656 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Webcam Imagery from Perryville, AK, 1659 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Webcam imagery from Port Heiden, AK, (PAPH) 1657 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

Webcam Imagery from Pilot Point, AK, (PAPN) at 1658 UTC on 19 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

GOES-R IFR Probability Fields, 0930-1230 UTC on 14 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

The low Sun Angle at very high latitudes during Summer presents a challenge to the GOES-R IFR Probability algorithm. Solar backscatter from clouds in the visible and near-infrared (3.9 µm) channels make traditional fog detection methods (Brightness Temperature Difference between 10.7 µm and 3.9 µm) problematic, but they also are a challenge for GOES-R IFR Probability. At mid-latitudes, when 3.9 µm radiation is changing quickly because of rapid changes associated with a rising (or setting) sun, the ‘satellite’ portion of GOES-R IFR Probability will be frozen for a time step or two. In the GOES-R Algorithm, temporal data (in other words, data from previous times) are used starting at the beginning of the terminator transition periods (that is, when the sun is rising or setting) and it’s used until valid data, either day or night predictors, depending on whether it’s sunrise or sunset, is again available. At mid-latitudes (as seen in the example at the bottom of this post), the transition period is typically less than thirty minutes in length. At high latitudes, however, when the sun lingers near the horizon for hours, the use of temporal data can stretch out for several hours and products will not be updated during that time. This effect happens only in the months surrounding the Summer solstice.

Consider the animation above, of GOES-R IFR Probability north of Alaska, over the Arctic Ocean.  IFR Probabilty varies with each time step over much of the image, especially, for example, near the lower left corner (a region that includes the Brooks Range).  There is a significant region, though, where values do not change over the three hours of the animation — this is because of the low sun angle and the difficulty in relating the 3.9 µm emissivity to a fog property.   (You can detect at the end of the animation changes starting to impinge on the region of a static signal from the west) The three hour animation from 1100-1400 UTC, below, shows changes in the field over much of the domain over the Arctic Ocean.

Barrow Alaska (PABR) develops IFR conditions during this animation as low clouds move south from the ocean.  GOES-R IFR Probability fields suggest that the fog does not penetrate far inland.  Much of northern Alaska had record high temperatures on 13 July (It was 85 in Deadhorse, for example) with light south/southwest winds that would keep the ocean stratus offshore.  Webcam views at Barrow (from this link) confirm the presence of IFR conditions.

GOES-R IFR Probability fields, 1100-1400 UTC on 14 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)

When GOES-R is flying, data the 8.4 µm channel will be incorporated into the GOES-R IFR Probability algorithm. This channel (Band 11 on the GOES-R ABI) is not so adversely affected by reflected solar radiation as the 3.9 µm channel so the unchanging nature of GOES-R IFR probability fields will be mitigated.

This stationarity in the GOES-R IFR Probability is apparent at mid-latitudes as well. Careful inspection of the animation below, from 1300-1400 UTC on 14 July 2016, shows a region of static IFR Probability fields off the coast of northern Oregon between 1315 and 1345 UTC.

GOES-R IFR Probability, 1300-1400 UTC on 14 July 2016 (Click to enlarge)