GOES-R IFR Probabilities from GOES-13, times as indicated on 27 November 2013 (click image to enlarge)
The GOES-R IFR Probability field showed enhanced probabilities surrounding lakes and rivers in Louisiana and Texas overnight. This is in large part due to a strong signal in the Brightness Temperature Difference field. There is a co-registration error between the 10.7 µm and 3.9 µm detectors on the GOES Imager. This means that the pixel locations for the two channels are not aligned, and at times the mis-alignment is large enough that a fog signal is produced. In the present case, one of the detectors sees the warm waters of a lake, and the second detector sees the adjacent (much cooler) shoreline, but the navigation misalignment is such that both pixels are believed to be co-located. Thus a difference in the brightness temperature occurs not because of emissivity difference properties in clouds (which also makes the 3.9 micron brightness temperature appear cooler) but because of a co-registration error. The brightness temperature difference field from 0802 UTC is below (the 0745 UTC image is very similar). Note how the enhanced brightness temperature difference field appears to have a shadow just to its west. It is possible for this to occur if a cloud is forming downwind of a warm lake. However, in the present case, winds were primarily northerly, not westerly.
GOES-13 Brightness Temperature Difference Product (10.7 µm – 3.9 µm) 0802 UTC 27 November 2013 (click image to enlarge)
Polar Orbiting satellites viewed this region contemporaneously. Aqua, carrying the MODIS instrument, passed overhead at 0745 UTC, and Suomi/NPP at 0802. What did they see? The 3.9 µm channel from MODIS, below, highlights the warm lake waters over eastern Texas and Louisiana. There is little indication in this image of clouds near the lakes.
MODIS Brightness temperature at ~3.9 µm 0802 UTC 27 November 2013 (click image to enlarge)
The brightness temperature difference product from MODIS, below, and the MODIS-based IFR Probabilities also show no indication of fog/low stratus near the bodies of water in east Texas/Louisiana.
MODIS Brightness temperature difference (11.0 µm – 3.9 µm) and MODIS-based IFR Probabilities at 0746 UTC 27 November 2013 (click image to enlarge)
Suomi/NPP data are shown below. The Brightness Temperature Difference (10.35 µm – 3.74 µm) Field, the 3.74 µm field and the Day/Night band all are consistent with clear skies near the water bodies of east Texas and western Louisiana.
Suomi/NPP VIIRS Brightness Temperature Difference (10.35 µm – 3.74 µm) and Day/Night band at 0802 UTC 27 November 2013 (click image to enlarge)
Be cautious when interpreting the brightness temperature difference from GOES (and IFR Probabilities that are computed using the satellite signal) along land/water boundaries. GOES Engineers continue to investigate methods of mitigating this co-registration error.