GOES-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities, 0345 UTC 24 September 2013 (click image to enlarge)

Consider the GOES-R IFR Probabilities computed from GOES-East data (and Rapid Refresh data) above. How confident are you that, at 0345 UTC, fog is forming in river valleys of western Pennsylvania? Is the likelihood the same in the southern part of the state (say, along the Monongahela River) as in the northern part of the state (along the Clarion or Allegheny Rivers)? GOES resolution in the infrared channels is 4 km at the sub-satellite point. In Pennsylvania, resolution is degraded to 5 or so kilometers. The knowledge of pixel size should color your interpretation of the GOES-R IFR Probabilities (and of the brightness temperature difference field computed from GOES). The MODIS-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities from 0339 UTC, below, show a ribbon of high probabilities over many of the river valleys of Pennsylvania. This 1-km resolution information is handy at capturing the initial development of fog and low stratus.

MODIS-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities, 0339 UTC 24 September 2013 (click image to enlarge)

Suomi/NPP VIIRS Day/Night band imagery, 0640 and 0820 UTC 24 September 2013 (click image to enlarge)

Day/Night band imagery over Pennsylvania and New York shows the expansion of fog coverage between successive Polar Passes, at 0640 and 0820 UTC. The imagery below shows the corresponding GOES-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities at those two times. The large cloud features over northeast Pennsylvania and the Southern Tier of New York are captured well by the GOES-based fields; the river valley fogs are not captured quite so well because of resolution limitations.

GOES-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities, 0645 and 0815 UTC 24 September 2013 (click image to enlarge)

A MODIS-based IFR probability field, below, far better represents the presence of River Valley fogs at 0746 UTC than the GOES-based IFR Probability Field, bottom, from 0745 UTC. (These times are between the two times in the GOES-R IFR Probability animation above) A good method for monitoring fog would incorporate the fine spatial resolution at the start of the fog event to ascertain which river valleys are starting first to become fog-bound. The good temporal resolution of GOES data is then used to outline the evolution of the event. Periodic Polar Orbiter passes from Terra, Aqua of Suomi/NPP as the fog event is occurring can confirm the GOES-based predictions of the evolution of fog.

MODIS-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities, 0746 UTC 24 September 2013 (click image to enlarge)

GOES-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities, 0745 UTC 24 September 2013 (click image to enlarge)