GOES-R IFR Probabilities computed from GOES-13 at 0730 UTC (Upper Left), GOES-13 Brightness Temperature DIfference (10.7 µm – 3.9 µm) (Upper Right), Suomi NPP VIIRS Brightness Temperature Difference (11.35 µm – 3.74 µm) (Lower Left), Suomi NPP VIIRS Day Night Band (Lower Right), all at 0730 UTC on 12 August 2014

Fog developed overnight in central Mississippi, and the imagery above, at 0730 UTC, is a snapshot during the development. The just-past-full moon provided plenty of illumination, so the stratus and cirrus clouds over the south are distinct. It can be difficult, however, using only the Day Night Band to distinguish between low stratus (north-central Mississippi), mid-level stratus (eastern Mississippi), and high, thick cirrus (Alabama). In addition, the Day Night Band and the brightness temperature difference fields give information at the top of the cloud only. Information about the bottom of the cloud — whether the stratus deck extends to the surface as fog, for example, is difficult to glean from cloud-top properties. This is where the IFR Probability field that incorporates both cloud-top features derived from the brightness temperature difference field and lower-tropospheric information extracted from the Rapid Refresh Model can improve the detection of reduced ceilings and visibilities. Suomi NPP and other polar orbiters can give high spatial resolution imagery. GOES data has excellent temporal resolution to monitor how things evolve with time. The animation below shows how the fog/low stratus developed over the course of the day.

GOES-R IFR Probabilities and Surface observations of visibility/ceilings, hourly 0200-1100 UTC 12 August 2014

The fields in the animation above change character over the course of the night. Initially, the fields over southwestern Mississippi are very smooth; in this region, multiple cloud layers (a thunderstorm complex was dissipating) prevent any satellite signal from being used as a predictor for IFR Probabilities; only model data are being used. As the night progresses and the mid-level and upper-level clouds dissipate, the character of the field takes on a more pixelated appearance that means satellite data are being used as a predictor. The addition of satellite data to the suite of predictors also means that the probability value increases. By the end of the night, high probabilities have overspread much of central Mississippi, and low ceilings and reduced visibilities are widespread.

GOES-R Cloud Thickness can be used to estimate times of fog dissipation, using the relationship in this scatterplot and the Cloud Thickness in the last pre-sunrise scene, shown below for 12 August 2014. The thickest values are near Vicksburg, MS, where GOES-R Cloud Thickness approaches 1000 feet.  That suggests a clearing time around 1400 UTC, ~3 hours after the valid time of the image below.  The visible animation of the low clouds clearing is below.

GOES-R Cloud Thickness, 1100 UTC 12 August 2014