GOES-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities over Kansas and surrounding states, 0430 UTC 3 September 2014 (Click to enlarge)
GOES-based IFR Probabilities over Kansas before midnight on 2 September highlight two regions where IFR Conditions might be developing: over western Kansas, near the Colorado border, and over south-central Kansas. These would be two places to monitor most closely over the coming hours. The MODIS-based IFR Probabilities for the same time, below, can be used to refine the interpretation of the GOES fields. IFR probabilities over western Kansas are higher with the MODIS data. IFR Probabilities from MODIS better capture the difference in the field over south-central Kansas as well: there is a more obvious distinction between IFR Probabilities influenced solely by model output (because of the multiple cloud layers associated with the thunderstorm at Hutchinson and Newton) and those controlled by both model and satellite predictors. The strength of GOES-based IFR Probabilities is temporal continuity. How do the fields evolve with time?
MODIS-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities over Kansas and surrounding states, 0424 UTC 3 September 2014 (Click to enlarge)
The animation below of GOES-based IFR Probabilities shows increasing values over western Kansas (the region drifts northward, as well); by 1045 UTC, at the end of the animation, IFR Probabilities are very high over western and northwestern Kansas, and IFR conditions are observed in the form of both low ceilings and reduced visibilities. This was a case where MODIS data gave an early alert to where GOES-based IFR probabilities might later become high. Fog can start at small scales and then grow in size and MODIS data offers an advantage of higher spatial resolution. A toggle between the MODIS and GOES-based IFR Probabilities at 0836 UTC is at bottom.
GOES-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities over Kansas and surrounding states, times as indicated on 3 September 2014 (Click to enlarge)
MODIS- and GOES-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities over Kansas and surrounding states, 0836 UTC on 3 September 2014 (Click to enlarge)