GOES-13-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities (Upper Left), GOES-13 Brightness Temperature Difference Product (10.7 µm – 3.9 µm) (Upper Right), MODIS-based GOES-R IFR Probabilities (Lower Left), Suomi-NPP Brightness Temperature Difference (11.35 µm – 3.74 µm) and Day/Night band (Lower Right), all times as indicated (click image to enlarge)

Fog and low stratus developed over the Southern Plains during the morning hours of 28 October 2013. The imagery above, from near 0730 UTC, demonstrates strengths of the IFR Probability fields and inherent limitations to the traditional methods of detecting fog and low stratus: the brightness temperature difference between 10.7 µm and 3.9 µm data. For example, note the elevated stratus over the Red River Valley in southeastern OK. Both GOES and VIIRS Brightness Temperature Difference fields there show a strong signal (and the day/night band also suggest clouds are present); IFR Probabilities are low, however, and are in good agreement with the observed ceilings and visibilities that show MVFR conditions.

The brightness temperature difference fields from both Suomi/NPP and from GOES show high clouds over south-central OK, in a region where IFR Conditions are observed. Rapid Refresh model data are being used in this region to diagnose — accurately — the presence of visibility-restricting fog and low stratus. As is typical when Rapid Refresh data are the primary means of diagnosing IFR Probabilities (because high clouds prevent the satellite from seeing water-based clouds near the surface), the IFR probability field is smooth.