Monthly Archives: August 2017

Dense Fog over the central Mississippi River Valley

GOES-16 Brightness Temperature Difference field (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm) from 0417 to 1357 UTC on 28 August 2017 (Click to animate)

GOES-16 data posted on this page are preliminary, non-operational and are undergoing testing.

GOES-16 Brightness Temperature Difference fields (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm), above, show the development of stratus clouds (made up of water droplets) over the Plains during the morning of 28 August 2017.  The Brightness Temperature for 10.3 µm is warmer than that for 3.9 µm during the night because cloud water droplets do not emit 3.9 µm radiation as a blackbody but those same cloud water droplets do emit 10.3 µm radiation more nearly as a blackbody would.   The conversion from sensed radiation to brightness temperature does assume blackbody emissions;  thus, the 3.9 µm brightness temperature is cooler where clouds made up of small water droplets exist.  The animation above shows stratus clouds developing over Missouri and adjacent states.  Dense Fog Advisories were issued near sunrise for much of the region (see image at bottom of this blog post) and IFR Conditions were widespread.

The animation above shows a positive signal over the western High Plains from Kansas northward to North Dakota. (Click here for the view at 1132 UTC on 28 August).

GOES-R IFR Probabilities are computed using Legacy GOES (GOES-13 and GOES-15) and Rapid Refresh model information; GOES-16 data will be incorporated into the IFR Probability algorithm in late 2017

How did GOES-R IFR Probability fields capture this event? The animation showing the fields every 30 minutes from 0215 through 1345 UTC on 28 August 2017, below, shows the development of High Probabilities in the region where Dense Fog was observed. There is a signal along the western High Plains, but it has low Probability; a conclusion might be that thin stratus has developed but that the Rapid Refresh model does not suggest that widespread low-level saturation is occurring. As the sun rises, the signal over the western High Plains disappears. Click here for a toggle between the GOES-R IFR Probability and the GOES-16 Brightness Temperature Difference field at 1115 UTC.

GOES-R IFR Probability fields, 0215-1345 UTC, 28 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)

Screen Capture of http://www.weather.gov at 1300 UTC on 28 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)

Dense Fog over Missouri

GOES-R IFR Probability Fields, and surface reports of Ceilings and Visibilities, hourly from 0315 to 1315 UTC on 15 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)

GOES-R IFR Probabilities are computed using Legacy GOES (GOES-13 and GOES-15) and Rapid Refresh model information; GOES-16 data will be incorporated into the IFR Probability algorithm in late 2017

IFR Conditions and Dense Fog developed over southeastern Missouri during the early morning on 15 August 2017, leading to the issuance of Dense Fog Advisories. GOES-R IFR Probabilities, above, showed increasing values as the ceilings lowered and visibilities dropped.  The IFR Probability fields over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas (and Kansas and Oklahoma) have the characteristic uniformity that arises when Rapid Refresh data alone are used to drive the IFR Probability values.  In these regions, high clouds (associated with convection over Arkansas) are blocking the satellite view of lower clouds.

Such high clouds will make it difficult for a satellite-only product to identify the regions of clouds.  For example, the Brightness Temperature Difference field below (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm) from GOES-16, color-enhanced so that low clouds are green and that cirrus (at night) are purple) shows widespread low cloudiness at the start of the animation, including some obvious river fog over Missouri (river valleys that are not well-resolved with GOES-13), but developing convection over Arkansas eventually prevents the view of low clouds.

GOES-16 data posted on this page are preliminary, non-operational and are undergoing testing

GOES-16 Brightness Temperature Difference field (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm), hourly from 0312 to 1312 UTC on 15 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)

Because the Brightness Temperature Difference field (helpfully called the ‘Fog’ Channel Difference in AWIPS) is challenged by high clouds in viewing the low clouds, RGB Products that use the brightness temperature difference field are also similarly impeded by high clouds.  Consider, for example, the stations in southern Missouri shrouded by the cirrus shield.  IFR Conditions are occurring there and a strong signal of that appears in the IFR Probability fields.

GOES-R IFR Probability computed with GOES-13 and Rapid Refresh Data, GOES-16 Fog (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm) Brightness Temperature Difference and GOES-16 Advanced Nighttime Microphysics RGB, all near 1115 UTC on 15 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)

Dense Fog over the Texas High Plains

GOES-R IFR Probability fields, hourly from 0215-1115 UTC on 2 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)

GOES-R IFR Probabilities are computed using Legacy GOES (GOES-13 and GOES-15) and Rapid Refresh model information; GOES-16 data will be incorporated into the IFR Probability algorithm in late 2017

The National Weather Service in Lubbock issued Dense Fog Advisories (below) for parts of their CWA early in the morning on 2 August 2017.  GOES-R IFR Probability fields, above, show a slow increase in values over west Texas during the night of 1-2 August 2017, as visibilities drop and ceilings lower in the region.  This followed a band of showers that moved through the area around sunset on 1 August (Click here for a visible image from 0017 UTC on 2 August, from this site).  Highest IFR Probability values at the end of the animation generally overlay the Dense Fog Advisory.  As a situational awareness tool for the developing fog/low stratus, IFR Probability performed well.

 

GOES-16 data posted on this page are preliminary, non-operational and are undergoing testing

GOES-16 Brightness Temperature Difference field (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm) at 1117 UTC on 2 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)

The GOES-R IFR Probability fields above mostly show the small-scale variability (i.e., pixelation) that is common when both (legacy) GOES data and Rapid Refresh Data are used to produce a probability that IFR conditions will be present.  Some exceptions:  southeastern New Mexico at the end of animation (1115 UTC);  the yellow and orange region there overlain by mid-level or high clouds that prevent a satellite view of the low clouds.  The GOES-16 Brightness Temperature Difference (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm) field at 1117 UTC shows a signal of high clouds there (cyan / blue / purple enhancement showing negative values that typify thin cirrus in the Brightness Temperature Difference field at night).  The Green values in the color enhancement are positive values and correspond to stratus (composed of water droplets) clouds.  Because the Brightness Temperature Difference field shows a signal, the Advanced Nighttime Microphysics RGB will also have a signal for fog (the whitish/cyan color), as shown below.

GOES-16’s better temporal and spatial resolution allow for more accurate monitoring of the development of small-scale features.  However, the shortcomings of using a Brightness Temperature Difference from satellite to monitor fog development should not be forgotten:  In regions of cirrus, satellite views of low stratus and fog are blocked.  In addition, over Texas and the rest of the High Plains, upslope flow can generate stratus over the central Plains that becomes fog over the High Plains as the terrain rises into the clouds.  The top of the stratus cloud and the fog bank in such a case can look very similar from satellite.

Advanced Microphysics RGB Composite at 1117 UTC on 2 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)

Below is a toggle between the 1115 UTC IFR Probability field, the GOES16 Brightness Temperature Difference Field, and the GOES16 Advanced Microphysics RGB Composite.

GOES-R IFR Probability fields computed with legacy GOES data and Rapid Refresh model output, GOES-16 Brightness Temperature Difference (10.3 µm – 3.9 µm) field and GOES-16 Advanced Microphysics RGB, all near 1115 UTC on 2 August 2017 (Click to enlarge)